Discover the technologies Russia employs in Belarus for subversive operations.
Lukashenko and Putin
Amidst discussions about threats from the northern and northeastern directions, diplomat Roman Bezsmertny assessed the actual military capabilities of Belarus’s self-proclaimed president, Alexander Lukashenko, and the Kremlin’s intentions. According to him, the Belarusian dictator cannot be trusted, as he does not control his words and only says what he is instructed to say by the Kremlin.
He shared these insights in an interview with the program “Studio West.”
However, the diplomat is convinced that Lukashenko himself lacks the forces to wage war against Ukraine. In addition to a scarcity of resources, there is significant internal opposition from the public – 83 percent of Belarusians are strongly against participating in the war.
“Lukashenko will be indecisive, evasive, saying things, and following the Kremlin’s orders, but he will not dare to send conscripts into battle, because this army would scatter into the Belarusian forests faster than it would reach its deployment location,” Bezsmertny stated.
He added that the Belarusian special operations forces are few in number, lack combat experience, individual equipment, and appropriate technology. The heavily armed military is designed solely for warfare against its own population and is incapable of fighting a formidable adversary like Ukraine. Bezsmertny also urged against believing maneuvers involving border repeaters, as activating or deactivating them takes mere seconds.
How many troops Russia can muster in the northern direction
Despite Minsk’s inability, Russia can still utilize this direction. Currently, approximately 120,000 Russian troops are stationed from Leningrad to Ukraine’s northern borders. This grouping is not fully staffed, but the Russian Federation is capable of reinforcing it.
“Regarding the troop grouping located in this direction from Russia’s side, if we consider a period of one month, they can assemble a force of around 200,000 in this area. However, a month is not so short a time to go unnoticed. It would take at least two months to form a combat-ready grouping,” the diplomat noted.
Bezsmertny emphasized that Belarus serves as a staging ground not only for attacks on Ukraine but also on the Baltic states, Scandinavia, and Central Europe. This direction remains highly perilous due to sabotage activities and the powerful antennas and electronic warfare systems deployed in Kaliningrad and the Brest region, which facilitate communication with strategic bombers and submarines.
An attempted breakthrough from the Belarusian side towards Kyiv, Chernihiv, Rivne, or Lviv would present a massive challenge for the enemy. The Ukrainian border is robustly fortified, and in certain areas, the terrain itself is virtually impassable.
“Out of 12 crossings, 8 are currently heavily mined, to the extent that birds sometimes get blown up there, while others are partially controlled by troops. The two that could have been used are completely blocked,” the diplomat concluded.
Bezsmertny summarized that advancing towards Ukraine from the north would require extraordinary courage. However, given that the Russian leadership is capable of making utterly foolish decisions, Ukrainians must be prepared for anything and avoid unnecessary risks.
Threat from Belarus — latest news
It is worth recalling that on Friday, June 26, Alexander Lukashenko flew to Putin’s residence in Valdai for negotiations. As noted by The Moscow Times, the meeting between the Russian and Belarusian dictators took place in an extremely tense atmosphere.
The day before, on Thursday, June 25, Lukashenko publicly asked Russian Ambassador Boris Gryzlov not to “drag” Belarus into the war with Ukraine, and for the first time openly confirmed that the Kremlin is pressuring Minsk to involve it more actively in combat operations.
Comments (1) Sort: New Old Popular Send smi3144 22:55, 28.06.2026 “Luka” cried into Putin’s vest and left on a “business trip” with his permission. Now he will be declared severely ill and a “caretaker government” will be appointed, and then… More 0 0 Reply