Ukraine’s long-range strikes could trigger significant political shifts within Russia.
Volodymyr Putin / © Associated Press
An intensification of Ukraine’s long-range attacks on Russian territory might influence not only the military landscape but also the sentiments within Russia’s leadership circles.
This perspective was shared by Volodymyr Ohryzko, a former Ukrainian Foreign Minister.
He speculates that Volodymyr Putin’s inner circle might already be exploring avenues to preserve their own influence should a change in leadership occur.
Ohryzko highlighted that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced in late June the commencement of a 40-day operation utilizing long-range strike capabilities. According to the diplomat, such pressure could compel the Russian elite to contemplate their future.
He suggests that behind-the-scenes negotiations between various power factions may currently be unfolding around Putin.
“Groups are forming around Putin who wish to remove him, as they realize that if they don’t, they might be removed themselves,” stated Ohryzko.
The diplomat believes that representatives of Russia’s top echelon may already be discussing who will become the country’s next leader and how to present this new figure to Western partners.
Why the Russian Elite Might Abandon Putin
In Ohryzko’s view, numerous influential individuals in Russia recognize that the war and international isolation increasingly pose personal risks to them. This is why they might seek to distance themselves from the current president.
The diplomat offered a hypothetical example of someone close to the Kremlin.
“Putin has completely discredited himself, revealing himself as a criminal. If I don’t turn him in voluntarily, then I too will be seen as a criminal,” Ohryzko described the potential sentiments among Russia’s elite.
He posits that such individuals might attempt to persuade the West that Russia will transform following Putin’s departure, and that a new leadership will be amenable to different relations with the international community.
The former Foreign Minister asserts that the primary argument of Russia’s elites will be the necessity of preserving Russia as a unified state. They might convince Western nations that only new leadership can prevent internal chaos, civil war, or issues related to nuclear weapons control.
In the diplomat’s opinion, this could form the basis of their future negotiation strategy with the West.
However, Ohryzko emphasized that this is his personal interpretation of the situation. He suggests that such processes might already be underway behind the scenes in the Kremlin, but there is currently no official confirmation.
We recall that The i Paper reported that Ukraine’s attacks have humiliated Putin in his hometown of St. Petersburg. In June, Ukrainian long-range drones and missiles struck strategic targets in Russia’s second-largest city. Experts note that St. Petersburg holds particular significance for the “Führer” as it is where he was born, worked in the mayor’s office, and began his political career.
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