Kyiv is making every effort to intensify military and psychological pressure on Moscow throughout the summer, hoping to persuade the Kremlin to engage in genuine negotiations.
Volodymyr Zelensky and Volodymyr Putin / © TSN
The 40-day campaign of strikes on Russian territory, announced by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, is not only a military but also a political strategy aimed at compelling the Kremlin to enter substantive negotiations by August – precisely at the moment when the Russian leadership will decide whether to launch a new autumn-winter offensive.
This is reported by The Economist.
The publication notes that the number 40 holds special symbolic significance for Ukrainians and Russians, as according to tradition, it is on the fortieth day after death that the soul finally leaves the earthly realm.
“When Zelensky announced a new large-scale surge in drone usage, he seemed to hint to Vladimir Putin that it was all over for him,” the article’s authors state.
August will be a decisive month
According to journalists, sources close to the Office of the President explain that the 40-day deadline set by Zelensky is linked to a potential new round of negotiations.
“It is expected that behind-the-scenes contacts will move to more official discussions in August, when the Russian high command decides whether to launch an autumn-winter campaign,” writes The Economist.
This is precisely why Kyiv is trying to maximally increase military and psychological pressure on Moscow throughout the summer, hoping to persuade the Kremlin to reach real agreements before strategic decisions on further offensive actions are made.
Drones are changing the rules of war
The publication emphasizes that Ukraine’s drone campaign has already significantly impacted Russian logistics and military infrastructure.
In particular, strikes on oil refineries have caused fuel shortages in several Russian regions, and attacks on transport routes to occupied Crimea have seriously complicated the resupply of the Russian grouping on the peninsula.
Major Yevhen Karas, commander of the 413th Drone Systems Regiment, stated that the turning point was the mass destruction of Russian air defense systems.
“The moment we realized we had a chance came when we saw how many air defense systems we were destroying,” he said.
According to the Ukrainian side, over 70 Russian air defense systems have been put out of action in recent months.
Crimea remains the main target
One of the key directions of the campaign is the isolation of Crimea and the disruption of its logistical connection with the territory of Russia.
However, even the Ukrainian military admits that they have not yet managed to completely cut off the peninsula.
“Consider this more of a defensive plan, not a victory plan,” noted Dmytro Pletenchuk, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Navy.
The main objective of the operation is to create persistent problems for the large Russian military grouping stationed in Crimea and to increase the cost of continuing the war for Moscow.
Without negotiations, the war will drag on into winter
The Economist stresses that August could be a turning point for the entire campaign.
If the pressure on Crimea and Russian logistics does not compel the Kremlin to agree to serious negotiations, the conflict will likely enter a new phase with another autumn-winter offensive by the Russian Federation and massive strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
“The 40-day deadline doesn’t change much directly on the battlefield. But it’s a decisive tool in a cognitive war,” the publication quotes a source involved in drone operations in Crimea.
According to the article’s authors, Ukraine is trying not only to alter the military situation but also to project an image of a party dictating the agenda and forcing the adversary to react to its actions. This is why the 40-day campaign announced by Zelensky is seen as an attempt to achieve real negotiations by August – before the Kremlin makes decisions regarding a new major offensive operation.
Recall that on June 25, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, during a meeting with SBU Chief Major General Yevhen Hmara, approved a 40-day influence operation against the aggressor state, aimed at compelling Russia to end the war.
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