China’s stance on nuclear weapons remains a significant deterrent for the Kremlin.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Xi Jinping / © TSN
China’s warning against Russia’s use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine has effectively become a form of security assurance for Kyiv.
This perspective was shared by Oleksandr Leonov, Executive Director of the Center for Applied Political Research “Penta,” during an appearance on “24 Channel.”
He recalled that during Viktor Yanukovych’s presidency, Ukraine and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) entered into a substantial intergovernmental agreement, under which Beijing committed not to support third countries engaged in aggression against Ukraine.
According to Leonov, while China has not fully adhered to all provisions of this agreement, its position on nuclear weapons continues to serve as a primary restraint for the Kremlin.
“In 2023, I read about discussions in a Japanese parliamentary committee where it was reported that China had indeed set ‘red lines’ for Russia in an ultimatum-like manner,” he noted.
The expert elaborated that these “red lines” specifically pertained to the use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine.
“Putin indeed brandishes nuclear weapons periodically, but then ceases to do so,” he added.
Leonov also highlighted that following the visit of a Chinese representative to Minsk, the rhetoric of Alexander Lukashenko, who had previously threatened the use of the “Oreshnik” missile system, changed dramatically.
Furthermore, in the expert’s opinion, Beijing also dissuades Russia from large-scale provocations against the Baltic states and Poland, as it is interested in maintaining stable logistical routes to Europe and has already incurred economic losses due to previous Russian actions.
Concurrently, Leonov anticipates that European nations will continue active dialogue with China, which supports the concept of a ceasefire conditional on the participation of both European countries and the PRC in the negotiation process.
Previously, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that China had adopted a firm stance on Russian nuclear rhetoric for the first time.
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As a reminder, Mykhailo Gonchar, head of the Center for Globalistics “Strategy XXI,” believes that China has not altered its position on Russia’s war in Ukraine. Beijing profits from Putin’s armed aggression, and there is no “peace plan” from the PRC.
According to Kyrylo Budanov, Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, compelling Russian dictator Vladimir Putin to end the war against Ukraine can only be achieved through coordinated pressure from several key players. China can influence the situation, but it has its own interests and benefits from the war.
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