Russia might pressure Lukashenka to involve Belarus in the war against Ukraine. However, according to Kyrylo Sazonov, such a scenario carries significant risks for Minsk itself.
Belarusian Soldier / © Ministry of Defense of Belarus
The risk of an invasion into Ukraine from Belarusian territory persists, but currently, no large strike groups are detected near the Ukrainian border.
Military expert Kyrylo Sazonov explained why Russia might pressure Lukashenka, but a direct attack would be an extremely risky scenario for Minsk.
The expert pointed out that such statements during official briefings are not the personal opinion of an individual speaker but are based on an assessment of the situation and intelligence data.
“If a press officer states this not in a conversation with friends, but at a briefing, it’s not their personal opinion. The State Border Guard Service of Ukraine command reached this conclusion after analyzing intelligence data and assessing the situation,” Sazonov noted.
According to him, Ukraine constantly considers the risks in the northern direction and prepares for potential threats.
“We constantly expect bad news from this section of the border. And we are preparing to meet them,” the expert added.
What is currently happening near the border
Sazonov believes that Russia is increasing pressure on Alexander Lukashenka, trying to force Belarus to participate more actively in the war against Ukraine.
Lukashenka himself periodically makes tough statements — particularly about the alleged readiness to “repel aggression” or about Ukrainian drones allegedly crossing the Belarusian border. In this way, Minsk attempts to create an information background about a supposed threat from Ukraine.
However, currently, Ukrainian border guards and intelligence services do not detect large groupings of Belarusian troops near the Ukrainian border.
“At this moment, border guards and intelligence do not detect large troop groups in the Republic of Belarus near the Ukrainian border. There are small units, and their rotation is carried out periodically. Infrastructure preparation is underway, including transport. But that’s all for now,” Sazonov explained.
Why a second front is beneficial for Russia
According to the expert, the Kremlin understands that it is deeply bogged down in the war against Ukraine on the current front line. In his assessment, Russians lack the resources for a large-scale breakthrough in the near future.
This is why Moscow might seek asymmetric steps and unexpected scenarios — from provocations against NATO countries to attempts to open a new front from Belarus.
“The Kremlin already understands that it is firmly stuck in Ukraine. Along the current front line. They don’t have the strength and resources for a serious breakthrough in the near future. Therefore, asymmetric actions and unexpected moves are needed for results,” Sazonov stated.
For Putin, according to the expert, opening a second front from Belarus would be a desirable scenario, as it would force Ukraine to redeploy forces to the northern direction.
“Opening a second front from Belarus is generally Putin’s dream. It’s very close to Kyiv. This means the Armed Forces of Ukraine will definitely transfer forces there,” he noted.
Why Lukashenka might not dare
Despite the risks, several factors work against a direct invasion by Belarus.
First and foremost, the Belarusian army lacks combat experience in the kind of intense warfare that Ukraine has been waging for years. In contrast, the Defense Forces have hundreds of thousands of military personnel with real front-line experience.
A separate factor is Ukraine’s advantage in drone technology. According to Sazonov, in the event of Belarus’s direct involvement in the war, objects critical to Lukashenka’s regime could come under attack.
“The Mozyr Oil Refinery and the production of potash fertilizers in the Minsk region and near Grodno can be easily targeted. Lukashenka understands this. An easy walk towards Kyiv is out of the question,” the expert stated.
Another important factor is the sentiment within Belarusian society. According to Sazonov, support for the war among Belarusians remains low, while opponents of participating in the war are significantly more numerous.
“Support for the war by Belarusians is about 7% officially. Opponents are 55%. Thus, they can completely lose power. ‘Daddy Kolya’ does not want to risk it,” he emphasized.
The most likely scenario
Sazonov concluded that the risk of an invasion from Belarusian territory was, is, and will remain. However, the most likely development of events in case of such a step would be extremely dangerous precisely for Lukashenka.
“The risk of an invasion from Belarus exists. It was, is, and will be. But the most likely scenario in this case is very bad for Lukashenka. And he knows it,” the expert summarized.
According to Sazonov, the direct involvement of Belarus in the war could result in serious military, economic, and political consequences for Minsk.
New threat from Belarus — latest news
Earlier, the State Border Guard Service stated that Ukraine continues to strengthen its defenses on the northern border with Belarus. According to the spokesperson of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, Andriy Demchenko, the fortification of the borders is comprehensive: border guards are carrying out engineering work in their zone of responsibility, and other units of the Defense Forces are establishing additional fortifications.
The military community is also discussing the risk of using Belarusian territory for new attacks or pressure on Ukraine. Military serviceman and co-founder of the “Aerorozvidka Support Center” Ihor Lutsenko noted that there are currently no 100% grounds to say that Putin will be able to force Lukashenka into direct participation in new aggressive actions.
At the same time, according to him, Russia might consider Belarus as a platform for aerial terror not only against Ukraine but also for pressuring the Baltic states.
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